July 10, 2010

Justin Smoak Helps Boost Value of Mariners' Cliff Lee Trade

Justin Smoak Helps Boost Value of Mariners' Cliff Lee Trade
Cliff Lee has been traded around enough at this point for the Mariners to know if they were properly compensated for his services.
Unfortunately for the last two clubs to trade for the former Cy Young winner, the haul of young players they got in return has yet to make a major impact in either case. While those previous deals of course cannot be judged as failures, especially for the Phillies, it looks like Seattle may have finally gotten it right with the Rangers.
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With a package centered around highly touted young first baseman Justin Smoak, Seattle got the big league-ready impact player that was lacking in the last two deals. And the supporting cast of young players also involved in the deal could pay off for Seattle as well.  Everybody thought earlier today that Cliff Lee would be on his way out of Seattle. They were right. Instead of heading to the visitor’s clubhouse in Seattle to join the New York Yankees, however, he joins the division rival Texas Rangers, along with RP Mark Lowe. Coming back to Seattle will be Justin Smoak and three others according to this Joel Sherman tweet. This deal has also been confirmed by Ken Rosenthal, who adds that the Mariners will be sending cash to the Rangers to help cover the $4M that Lee is owed over the rest of the season.
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Earlier today, some thought that Jesus Montero was a solid haul for Lee, along with the rest of the package. In that case, the return of Justin Smoak has to be seen as an absolute steal. Smoak had an .885 OPS between three different leagues in 2009. Smoak then posted a 1.010 OPS in 15 games with AAA Oklahoma City before receiving a call-up to the big leagues. His power hasn’t really materialized at the big league level (.145 ISO), but a 13.8% walk rate in 275 PAs is incredibly encouraging, and his .238 BABIP is bound to see a boost.The end of a day like few others in Mariners history turned out like too many others this season -- with a meager output of offense in a 6-1 loss to the New York Yankees. Any wonder the Mariners were yearning for an impact hitter as they shopped Cliff Lee. The hope is that Justin Smoak can become what general manager Jack Zduriencik described during today's news conference. "If this guy is what we think he is," Zduriencik said, "he's going to be a cornerstone as we move forward."
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Smoak will arrive Saturday. Can it start then?

The Mariners are on pace to score 550 runs this season, which would be a low for the 34-year-old franchise, excluding strike years. On second count, the 1994 team scored 569 runs in a season shortened to 112 games. This Mariners team has played 23 games when they've scored no more than one run, and they won two of those. They've played 16 others when they scored two runs (winning twice there, too). That's 39 games when the lack of offense put the pitchers into a mode when any mistake they made might cost the game. You can't pitch like that.